National

Column

Forecast map

Column

National summary

Scenarios

Distribution of outcomes

Projections by district

Column

District win probabilities

Column

Vote projections by district

Data sources

Code

Code for model

The code and methodology for the model that generates this forecast is available on GitHub:

https://github.com/stevenwhitlow/us_house_model_2022

Data

Data sources

This forecast used data from the following sources:

  1. FiveThirtyEight: generic ballot polling from 2020-2022 and 2022 House candidate names and incumbency status;
  2. ALARM Project and VEST: 2020 presidential election results by precinct;
  3. Redistricting Data Hub: shapefiles for new districts from 2022;
  4. OpenStreetMap: base map data